This first table looks at pitchers who had the most significant drop-off (all of them had p-values less than 10^(-6)) from their non-final inning numbers to their final inning numbers. 233 of the 241 of the pitchers in the sample had a significant drop-off (p-values less than 0.05), but these were the most severe. I don't know how much this difference really means because the important number for managerial decisions is the late FIP, but many of these guys are good pitchers, and are probably pitching in close games pretty often (unlike somebody who has a really high FIP throughout the game), and their team would benefit if the manager got them out one inning early. Of course knowing when the pitcher is going to start getting knocked around in a given game is impossible - sometimes they might be getting pulled in the 8th, other times in the 7th, etc. However it seems managers should be extra aware about these pitchers, and get them out of the game as soon as they're showing even a slight decrease in velocity.
|pitcher||early FIP||late FIP|
This table is less interesting, but these were the only eight pitchers who didn't have a significant last inning FIP increase.
|pitcher||early FIP||late FIP||p-value|
The final table shows the nine pitchers who had a last inning FIP over 9.00. I don't think any of them are still starting games. Rick Reed had a good career and my data set just caught the tail end of it. Most have been tried as relief pitchers, and Darren Oliver has actually become a pretty good one.
|player||early FIP||late FIP|
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